Where Omicron might take us

1) Omicron is FAR more contagious

See the plot at OurworldInData here . (The arrows and notes on the plot are mine) Of note is this is a 7 day moving average. This is done to smooth out noise in the data and also testing and reporting trends driven by the 7 day workweek cycle (people work less on weekends, or maybe are more likely to get tested then, etc). Today’s data point is an average of the past 7 days. That means today South Africa is about 3.5 days further down the road than that data point. With that slope thismeans the country is already up to about 170 cases per million people per day
  1. Inherent properties of the virus (how much it takes to infect a new host and how much virus the host puts into the environment) and
  2. The amount of mixing in the population a(if everyone keeps to themselves it cant spread. If people are mixing more , something spreads faster)
  3. How many people in the population are susceptible to reinfection.

2) Omicron is likely to cause more breakthrough infections

3) Omicron can get people pretty sick

Closing thoughts

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I have a background in science. I back up nearly everything science I write with peer reviewed research, or at least preprints and pointers to my data sources

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David Theil

David Theil

I have a background in science. I back up nearly everything science I write with peer reviewed research, or at least preprints and pointers to my data sources

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