Right on Schedule, 5 weeks to the Omicron Crest
I have been tracking Manhattan (New York County, New York) to see if it would more or less match the omicron infection curve South Africa showed us. Sure enough, about 5 weeks after it entered its very steep exponential growth curve (doubling every 2–3 days) the breakneck pace is slowing. Within a week it should clearly turn downwards in the 7 day trailing average and if you squint at the up and down daily data, it perhaps already has.
My local Bay Area is lagging New York by 2–3 weeks, so there is more pain to come here. Then there are many areas of the country that lag even further, and are just starting their darker days. Also unknown is how hospitalizations will play out in areas that are less vaccinated, like Louisiana.
Indications are that far fewer patients will need respiratory therapy, however it is unclear how much of this is based on prior exposure to similar but not the same variants or vaccination. Approximately 10% of the US is not seropositive in anyway (no exposure or vaccine) and we will learn in the coming weeks how they fare.
Even at the lower rates of critical respiratory illness, the number of cases is so high, the US may be seeing 2k-4k deaths a day for a few weeks around the end of January. On the sunny side, South Africa’s case counts are dropping rapidly. Hospitals are so full and staffing spread so thin that in areas people with otherwise treatable problems like sepsis (yes that has a reliable treatment now) or in need of dialysis are dying with greater frequency because beds just are not available. Unintentional care rationing is happening from bed shortages, and overworked staff making more mistakes or simply not having time to provide the care they want to and should because they have too many patients.
Assuming South Africa is a good predictor, in 8–10 weeks, this period will be an ugly memory. Maybe it will be a great spring and summer, if there is not another pandemic curveball.
