Delta Surge Progression and Forecasting

England as a Predictor

Note: In late May and late June there are odd reporting glitches in the California data set, with days of 0 new cases and others with tens of thousands. Here the trailing averages do not track suspect days. This helped make the plot more readable, but as you can see that correction was not perfect.

Forecasting

This illustrates roughly the same span of time between the pre-delta minimum and the peak in the UK. As you look at case rates here, note that India probably has a severe under-reporting problem. Th

How Certain is 65 days?

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I have a background in science. I back up nearly everything science I write with peer reviewed research, or at least preprints and pointers to my data sources

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David Theil

David Theil

I have a background in science. I back up nearly everything science I write with peer reviewed research, or at least preprints and pointers to my data sources

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