This is quickly written ( poor structure and typos etc.) because I have lot going on, but this topic is important and things are changing very quickly.

Omicron is spreading crazy fast in South Africa, and can cause severe illness. How likely that latter is is unkown. We don’t have…

I have been posting information about the pandemic on Facebook for quite some time. More than once, people close to me have encouraged me to post my musings in a more accessible way, so here I am.


In the early months of the pandemic many in my friends circle…

The Lambda variant (C.37) has been getting a lot of news coverage in the US the past week. This won’t last.

In head to head which-variant-out-competes-the-other matchups, Lambda does not quite hold its own against Gamma (see Chile) and gets creamed by Delta (Mexico) and with Gamma already prevalent, never got a toehold in Brazil. Lambda is more transmissible than wild type, and maybe Alpha (B.1.1.7). Its success in Peru is likely a founders effect.

Expect Lambda to vanish from US headlines in the coming week or two. We are 99% Delta by then. Don’t take my word for it, browse the countries tab in for yourself (but remember some nations have statistically very small samples of genotyped samples, and should be ignored.)

David Theil

I have a background in science. I back up nearly everything science I write with peer reviewed research, or at least preprints and pointers to my data sources

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